How times have changed. Just a few years ago, Canada was viewed as a leader on the climate change front (Chretien signing the Kyoto Accord, Dion hosting an international conference in Montreal), while the United States was widely castigated as the principal villain in the piece. Now in 2009, U.S. President Barack Obama has made climate change and clean energy cornerstones in his new administration, even in the teeth of the country’s worst economic slump since the Great Depression. Canada meanwhile is seen by many as treading water on climate change policy, and recently has been accused by environmental groups of working behind the scenes to undermine a new international climate change agreement in Copenhagen later this year.

Are Canadians now ready to accept U.S. leadership on climate change, and see their own governments adopt policies crafted in Washington? On the surface, the answer might seem to be yes. Historically, Canadians have been generally favourable towards the U.S. Opinions declined dramatically during the Bush years (to an all-time low in 2008 where only 50 per cent of Canadians held a positive view of the U.S.), but the election of Barack Obama has reversed this trend. The new U.S. President is widely popular among Canadians, even more so than among his own people. Shortly after his winning the White House, two-thirds of Canadians felt an Obama Presidency would be good for Canada, compared with only five per cent who took the opposite view.

Even more important, however, is the fact that Obama’s strong stance on climate change is in line with the views of most Canadians, who have consistently expressed support for more decisive action on this issue by all sectors of society (in principle, if not in specific policies such as carbon taxes). Moreover, public support for climate change action is more broadly-based in Canada than in the U.S., where it tends to be a partisan issue splitting Democrats and Republicans. And Canadians have also been consistent in expressing dissatisfaction with the level of effort they have seen to date from governments, business and their fellow consumers.

Given these trends, it would seem apparent that Canadians would openly welcome joining with the U.S. to tackle the challenging problem of climate change in a joint effort. And yet this is not the case. The latest results from the Environics Canadian Environmental Barometer (conducted in late May 2009) show that Canadians are evenly divided between those who think Canada should develop a common approach with the U.S. on climate change policy (47 per cent), and those who advocate a "made in Canada" approach (47 per cent). This divided sentiment was evident back in late November, in the global euphoria over Obama’s historic victory.

What might account for this hesitancy among many Canadians to follow the U.S. lead on climate change?  Several possible explanations come to mind. First, it is most definitely the case that Canadians are not yet sure what the U.S. administration plans to do about climate change, as this has yet to be fully spelled out, and even what has been is not apparent to most citizens. So some are undoubtedly withholding judgement until they better understand more about the U.S. approach, and what it means for Canada.

In addition, there may be concerns about the impact of any new U.S. policy on the Canadian economy, generally or specifically in terms of the oil and gas sector (Canadian oil sands development has already been targeted by some U.S. lawmakers). Recent U.S. actions to build trade barriers through "Buy American" laws and implement stricter security requirements at the Canada-U.S. border are likely making some Canadians more wary of American intentions.

These reservations are largely at the surface, and could change quickly as the issue unfolds. However, there is likely a deeper more enduring basis for the public’s hesitancy to fully join with the Americans on climate change. From its earliest roots, Canadian history has been shaped by the challenge of establishing and maintaining a distinct place, culture and sovereignty from the U.S. power to the south, and this sentiment remains well established in the public psyche today. Even in the afterglow of Obama’s great election victory last fall, most Canadians felt the best way to get along with the U.S. is to cooperate but hold the line on issues where they may be differences.

While some may conclude that public resistance to U.S. leadership on climate change reflects ignorance about the real politick surrounding the issue, it is in fact the most informed segment of Canadians (i.e. the most educated) who express the greatest resistance to a common North American approach (along with youth and women). By comparison, it is in Quebec where such an approach is most apt to find favour — perhaps because it is in this province where opinions of the U.S. have rebounded most strongly, where climate change is of greatest concern, and where nationalistic sentiments are weakest.

Whatever the reason, it is clear there is no public consensus in Canada at this time for adopting U.S. policies to fight climate change. This may change as these policies begin to take shape, but Canadian policy makers and business leaders should expect that meeting domestic expectations will require solutions that Canadians can see as clearly reflecting the values and priorities of their own "home and native land."

Keith Neuman (keith.neuman@environics.ca) is Group Vice-President, Public Affairs, for Environics Research Group Ltd.

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