The COP 15 international summit on climate change will be convening in Copenhagen in less than two months. While few would confidently predict the outcome, almost everyone agrees this will be a critical event in determining whether or not it is possible to reach a multi-lateral agreement on a problem that undeniably demands international action. The global commons of CO2, the fact that every country contributes to the problem, and in some way will experience its consequences, makes climate change the first major societal challenge that truly is global in scope.

As countries approach the negotiation table in Copenhagen, each will be searching to find the crucial balance between contributing to a much-needed common solution and looking out for domestic interests back home. This balance will dictate how far each country is prepared to go in supporting a credible multi-lateral plan, and the sum total of these individual decisions will in the end determine whether the negotiations produce a credible plan. Part of the domestic calculus each country must weigh are the opinions and expectations of its citizens. Do the people they think an international agreement is important, how far do they expect their country to go in making this happen, and what might be the political consequences of the outcome?

Let’s consider Canada — do Canadians care about what will take place at these upcoming meetings? Is public pressure likely to be a factor in how the federal government and its domestic stakeholders (provinces, industry) participate in what promises to be tough bargaining sessions in the Danish capital?  The short answer is no, at least in the short term.

Yes, Canadians are certainly aware of the climate change issue, they understand the basics (if only superficially), and most are clearly concerned about the problem. Canadians have expressed concern about climate change for a number of years, peaking in the Spring of 2007 when the issue gained new prominence with the release of Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth” and other signature events. Since that time, the public has remained concerned about climate change, but the intensity of this view has been gradually diminishing. Climate change has lost much of its novelty and scariness, in part because there have yet to be compelling and tangible signals of either significant climate changes or climate impacts that might mobilize public focus and political pressure to act. Today, climate change is in a holding pattern — it has joined the ranks of endemic societal problems that people will talk about and take mostly symbolic actions to demonstrate (to self and others) their personal attentiveness. But there is as yet no critical mass of public pressure for significant changes. In fact it is quite the opposite: There is an underlying resistance to change in the absence of crisis because change is difficult and will always encounter resistance — this is how human societies have always operated since civilization began.

Does this mean there is little public appetite among Canadians for their country to join with the world in a global campaign against climate change?  The answer here is counter-intuitive. Despite the somewhat disconnected view of climate change, Canadians do recognize this to be a serious world-wide problem that requires a global solution. And they want — and expect — their country to be on the right side of the issue and set a good example for the rest of the world.  According to a recent Environics Canadian Environmental Barometer survey, more than half of Canadians believe it is “critically important” to find an international solution to climate change, and a clear majority (two in three) say Canada should sign on to such an agreement even if it may result in the loss of jobs and higher prices for some goods and services. What kind of agreement do Canadians want their country to sign on to?  Most have no clue, and many will not care about the details – they prefer to leave this to the experts and count on them to figure out the appropriate formulas, policies and strategies.

It is not that Canadians are ready to cast aside domestic self interest to support any level of CO2 reduction targets, or endorse restrictions that would undermine key sectors of the economy. But they do realize, and accept, that every country (especially wealthy developed ones like Canada) has a responsibility to the world community. Canadians as a whole will likely to be most comfortable with a negotiated outcome on climate change that falls somewhere between what environmentalists say is necessary and what their opponents believe is appropriate. When the dust finally settles in Copenhagen, Canadians most of all will want to see their country having done its fair share among the community of nations (at a minimum) and demonstrating leadership (if given the opportunity to do so). Key to understanding this mindset is Canada’s multicultural heritage and mix, which makes it among the most outwardly looking and globally connected of nations. 

And what happens if these expectations are not fulfilled, and the Canadian government does not contribute to a successful multi-lateral treaty on climate change? In the short term there will be little if any political consequences as climate change and the environment are largely absent from political agenda in today’s minority Parliament. None of the federal parties can gain political advantage on this issue, and they all know how to say the right things to avoid making it a liability at the polls. In the long run, however, the story that gets told in Copenhagen later this year could well have lasting consequences down the road when the reality of climate change finally “bites.”

Keith Neuman ( keith.neuman@environics.ca ) is Group Vice-President, Public Affairs, for Environics Research Group Ltd.

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