Climate change has been around as an environmental issue since the late 1980s and finally emerged to capture the spotlight in 2007, helped by a combination of climatic, political and media events (including Al Gore’s award-winning documentary, An Inconvenient Truth). Polls showed the public in most parts of the world starting to take this issue seriously and looking to their governments and corporations to make this a priority. However, progress on solutions has been halting, and as the global community gathers in Copenhagen this month many doubt a viable international agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions on a global scale can be achieved.

Governments facing difficult economic and political circumstances at home will need a strong backing from their citizens if they are to make significant political commitments on climate change in the international arena. In the United States public support has declined significantly over the past 18 months. A recent survey conducted by the respected Pew Research Center reveals that Americans are less likely than 18 months ago to consider climate change a very serious issue (35%, down 9 percentage points), the lowest level recorded since 2006. Perhaps more important, fewer Americans now believe that climate change is actually happening and the result of human activity (36%, down 11 points), with almost as many endorsing the view that there is not enough evidence to show the earth is in fact warming (33%, up 12 points). Moreover, these latest trends are evident across the political spectrum, with the biggest changes among those who label themselves as neither Democrats nor Republicans, but “Independents.”

These trends may not be much of a surprise when considered in the context of the current economic and political climate in the U.S. Americans are in the midst of the worst recession since the Great Depression, and many are encountering economic hardships wholly unknown in their experience, or their parents’ experience. Further distraction comes from the current push for health care reform which has generated a political firestorm between progressive and conservative interests. And the public dialogue about climate change has itself become increasingly polarized as the voices of the so-called “climate change deniers” have effectively reopened the question of whether climate change is in fact for real. Guardian journalist George Monbiot wrote recently that “climate change denial is spreading like a contagious disease … expanding with astonishing speed.”

What is happening north of the border — are Canadians also losing interest in climate change? The answer is yes and no. The most recent Environics’ Environmental Barometer survey reveals the same downward trend in opinions, but to a lesser degree. The Canadian public today is not as focused on climate change as it was in 2007 and 2008, but they continue to be more likely than Americans to consider it a serious problem (in November 53% said they are extremely or definitely concerned about climate change). Along with Americans, Canadians are also somewhat less likely than before to believe that science has now proved that climate change as real and caused by human activity, but this remains the majority view (56%), compared with only a small minority who question whether climate change is actually taking place (14%).

So it appears that the Canadian public is responding to some of the same influences taking place south of the border, but the impact is much smaller and there remains a stronger public constituency for action on climate change. Canada is weathering the current recession much better than Americans, and the country is not consumed by political battles over health care, social policy or constitutional issues. As well, the rising debate between climate change “warmists” and “coolists” has yet to generate much profile in Canada, as no prominent Canadian voices have yet emerged to credibly challenge the scientific community. Environmental issues historically have been more of a stated priority for Canadians (relative to Americans) because of the country’s climate, culture and social values. 

At the same time, it is important to note that Canadian public concern about climate change is as low as it has ever been. Neither prevailing weather patterns, pronouncements by leading environmentalists, nor coverage of the upcoming international summit in Copenhagen has prompted increased public attention to, or priority on, climate change; public opinion appears to be in a holding pattern. One might characterize the prevailing Canadian public position on climate change as being more activist than the federal government (and provincial governments in places like Alberta), but considerably less so than that of leading environmental groups and climate scientists who are pushing for strong Canadian leadership at home and abroad.

The public constituency for this latter position is neither large enough nor vocal enough to put concrete political pressure on the federal government in Parliament or on the international stage. As a result, when Canada goes to Copenhagen it will likely be able to manage public expectations at home simply by showing up, not standing out from the pack, and tucking itself under the wing of whatever the Americans stand for. But in the longer term, the pressure for Canada to move forward with a credible climate action plan will almost certainly grow, both from the international community and from its own citizens, as the evidence of a changing climate — from disappearing sea ice to spreading drought — makes itself felt.

Keith Neuman (keith.neuman@environics.ca) is Group Vice-President, Public Affairs, for Environics Research Group Ltd.

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